Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
The markets closed out the strongest month in 4 years on small profit taking. Most individual equities that RW monitors were down on profit taking as well. Even thought he Dow was down 92 and the SPX wad down 10.05 it was a very quiet day.
Stocks that were in favor were falling out, and stocks like NLFX and BABA that have been beaten down showed strength. Yet we closed out the month of October with HUGE gains despite Friday’s pullback.
TODAY
Friday saw some selling, and I anticipate that to continue on the open as we start a new month. I suspect we will open down, perhaps getting to the lows made after the Fed reported last Wed.
fter that we will probably have a jagged run up for the rest of the year.
REMINDER:
I want to clarify things as they often get lost/confusing on the day-to-day reports we put out. I am short term bullish despite an expected weaker open today.
I then expect the usual run higher by the end of the year. But things are NOT good. There is a reason why the three top presidential candidates in the polls (Sanders, Trump, and Carson) are leading. Jeb is on life support and Hillary appears to be in the lead, but that is only with sheep who can’t think. Despite their loyalty to her, I suspect it is more about having 2 X chromosomes than it is about her ability and ethics. No one can name three accomplishments she has made in 30 years in politics. Hell, I have even had three great calls in the stock market in the last 3 years.
Things are a mess. Like or hate Trump, he is right about one thing. Unemployment at 5% is a lie. The deficit is killing us. We reach trade agreements where there is only one winner ā the other guy. Politicians (on both sides of the aisle) don’t care about anything other than getting reelected and rigging the rules so they don’t have to play by the same as us ālittle people who are too incompetent to run our own lives without their divine guidanceā.
And now the country is suffering as a result. BIG TIME SUFFERING. If something doesn’t change soon we will be Greece. And the stock market can ignore this as long as it looks like corporate growth and earnings can eventually outgrow the problems, but the abyss is becoming too deep. When we start seeing poor 4th quarter numbers the hopium will wear off. When the election gets more serious politicians will bring these problems that we chose to ignore back to light. And we will have a BIG DOWN MOVE much greater than the benign 9.8% and 11% drops seen in September 2014 and August 2015 respectively.
GOOD NEWS
The great news (way better than good) is that we should have a couple months to brush up and prepare for the INEVITABLE next down turn. Remember that 95% of the people make money in the markets when they go up, and lose when they go down. This is NOT the Federal Reserve, IBM or AAPL printing money. This is a zero sum game. The money made is lost by short sellers.
But when the market crashes 95% lose and the other 5% make what is lost. So there is a silver lining in tough times, provided you are the right side.
When I was a kid there was a magician on TV selling his kits to kids that always said, āIt is easy once you know the secretā. BTW kids, he was also WIZZO the magician on our TV show, Bozo’s Circus. I never knew that until I got old(er).
SEMINAR
January 20, 21, 22
Free Dinner Cruise Thursday January 21
For more information on affordable hotels contact the office or watch the VIDEO with the following link:
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
AAPL is ex-dividend on Tuesday which leads to our usual games of taking money off the table left by the public who are unaware how to play. Also, we had our positions paired down dramatically last week after most items expired. This was an intentional thing as we had made a great deal on the move higher, but wanted to start preparing for a potential pullback.
the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Below are reprints of the best cartoons I have found.
Too True To Be Funny
othing āLow Energyā about this guy! He he….
Attorney Stuff
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