Wednesday
Sept 30, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Government Shutdown Possibility/Probability This Wednesday
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
It was the dullest day since the Fed announced, and the second dullest day in 2 months.
What is amazing is the government may shut down tonight, we are resting near last month’s lows, and the market didn’t see to have any concerns yesterday. The market moved and acted like it had months earlier when we were in a quagmire of SPX 2,100.
The two things that stood out were:
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The biotech stocks were still getting hit from Hillary Clinton’s remarks. Why would her remarks mean anything when she has ZERO chance of being elected?
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AAPL took a hit after GOOGLE announced it was making its own tablet.
What I find extraordinary is that the government may shut down again at midnight and I am hearing NO talk about it in the media. When the political games of chicken were being played 2 years ago it was all the media talked about, and the markets fell 1,2000 Dow points.
Then again this is a different age. We are now in a period of time that I thought would never come. The average mouth-breather is getting fed up with politicians. Joe Q. has turned off Sports Vision for 15 minutes a day to listen to Trump trash talk Fiorna, Clinton, Paul, and Jeb (no last name). Maybe they realize a shutdown is not bad?
TODAY ā Up by end of the day
I figured we would test 1867 in the SPX yesterday. That didn’t happen so I expect some people to sigh a little relief and buy on the open. If you want to be in the market why not buy it down here?
From there we will likely get more movement with the media finally talking about the shutdown, any last minute deals, etc. I plan on going home LONG. My guess is that the politicians have a case of learned helplessness after watching Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Ben Carson lead the polls. These guys have historically all had one play in their book, and it is not being used.
Congress has a 4% approval rating. Think about that. Ted Bundy and Charles Manson got women who wanted to marry them in prison, but not more than 1 in 25 approve of the politician they have a vested interest in since they voted for the person.
The Senate will therefore, most likely, do what they do best ā PUNT. They will pass a new bill at the last second, not caring how much more money they waste of ours, and all it quits. Once that is passed, not matter how bad it is, the market will run up because of relief from uncertainty. God knows the American people can’t go a day without Mt. Rushmore to make a good deal and save a trillion or two.
OPTION TRADERS
A separate update.
We spread off the long $20 put spread bought 2 days ago. I didn’t want to be long or short the market, and I have achieved it. I will be getting long by the end of the day and short premium.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
Any American over the age of 40 doesn’t care for Russians. They remember the cold war. They remember the space race and the Berlin wall. They remember Ronald Reagan putting Russia out of business and standing up to the Russians. Some may even remember him joking on the radio about āoutlawing Russiaā and āthe bombers are on the way to the Soviet Unionā. It scared the hell out of the Russians.
I remember crawling under a flammable wood desk in school to do nuclear war drills in case Russian launched missiles at us. It did get me out of some English classes, and anyone reading this knows I suffered.
But Trump is right. Putin is checkmating us every single time. But I a not going to criticize the President, especially when he is doing such a good job at keeping Hillary down in the polls (deliberately). Instead I will use Putin’s own quote:
“Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon.
The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board and
then struts around like it won the game.”
Putin
Attorney Stuff
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