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Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Great Morning
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Kaboom Part II.
The market opened weak after the IMF stated that the global economy is slowing down with the small exception of the US. By about 10:30 – 11:00 the market had almost totally recovered. But the recovery ended as the RUT kept falling. This has been the thorn in the side of the market for weeks, and it is getting to a critical level. See below in TODAY
TODAY
I expect some buying on the open as people are soothed by the passage of time of a closed market. I am paying very careful attention to the RUT and its magic level of 1070 (Closed at 1076). If the RUT breaks 1070 with any real impunity (more than $2 lower) it could be a bad day for the market as a whole. This is according to some of the biggest traders looking at the market. I see things a little different. I think we pretty much closed right at the line of death for the RUT, and we either bounce from here or it is ball game. This si the fourth time in a year that we fell to these levels and bounced.
See the image below.
Keep in mind that the FED releases its minutes on interest rates at 2:00pm. I don’t expect any change in their stance. As a matter of fact, it is only the anal-cysts that read into what the Fed is saying (and often puts words in their mouths) that has people thinking rates are going to increase sooner than the Fed themselves have already stated.
The Fed essentially stated nothing is going to happen until at least the summer, and of course they put in their disclaimers of “given current estimates….blah, blah”
So it all comes down to today at 2pm. The one thing that has me spooked more than previously is that the quick market pull backs are happening a lot more frequently than in the past. Previously after a pull back the market would bounce and run for months. It can not even sustain 2 days of a run higher now – AND that is what has me on guard. I want to stress I am very much “on guard” not panicked.
Keep in mind that we were above 17,000 yesterday and could be back above it again today. No bull market has ever ended because of Ebola, a crap president (though Clinton’s impeachment and Nixon’s resignation did hurt it for a few days), or ISIS. It is earnings, the economy or rising interest rates that alone will most likely destroy this market- and so far none have popped up.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Gamma scalping was postponed last week.
I hate to say this, but it could be postponed again until next week as well depending on the market. I can’t be teaching something and ignoring some of the most opportune times in the markets. We went an entire month in August without the Dow moving 300 points from top to bottom, and now we are doing it ever couple of days.
We will all know by watching the market today if it is time for gamma scalping class or positions and opportunities.
This began last week.
Individual update coming.
Too True To Be Funny
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Attorney Stuff
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