Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Government Shutdown Averted
They kicked the can down the road (again).
At least those “geniuses” can agree they are too incompetent to balance a checkbook.
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
The Dow was only up 237 points (1.47%) , but the SPX was up 35.94, or 1.91%. I had to double check but even BABA was up. Tesla unveiled its new “X” series car with gull-winged doors and a sensor that knows when you are approaching the car.
AAPL was up as well after suffering a large decline the previous day from Google wanting to launch its own tablet and phone. One would think those guys could have an original idea with all that money.
Bonds were down modestly while the USD was stronger against the Euro.
It was the end of the 3rd quarter and $3 bln came in to buy on the close. We will see if the run up with real or just people with cash that had to go to work. You could NOT pay me to own a bond, so with the market down 7.5% in the 3rd quarter it makes sense to buy.
TODAY – Up by end of the day
One of the last fears left for the market was the government shutdown. The Senate and Congress passed a bill to push a deadline back until December 11th. This should result in a relief rally on the open. I suspect at 10:00pm with futures up 4 that they are a screaming buy here, and will be up 15-20 on the open with the Dow up another 150- 200.
From there we will see if the rally is real, or it is a selling opportunity to short the market and watch the SPX head back to 1867. Yes, this particular headache is over with for today, but it will come back up in December. We also have other monthly and longer term headaches.
Some of these are (not important information below):
Interest Rates:
Until Yellen decides to decide on interest rates, we will see what we have seen. The market will take no hike in rates as more negative than the rate hike she is fearing will disrupt the markets. And why? Maybe it is the fact the economy does suck, but she can’t do anything about that. We spent $10 trillion and did $4 trillion in QE to fix it, yet we keep passing legislation that puts America behind the curve in competing in the world and at home.
Sarbanes – Oxley
This well meaning but STUPID piece of legislation costs every medium and large corporation an average of $9k per employee to keep records. The ironic item is that this bill was the reason General Patreaus could be convicted, was signed by Senator Hillary Clinton, and can also be used to convict her for many things including perjury.
Vietnam Part II
Now we have Putin saying he is attacking ISIS in Syria, but really attacking our CIA backed rebels (not ISIS). We ALL KNOW (Democrats and Republicans) this administration will do NOTHING to resolve the issue since the only one who dislikes Obama more than Trump is Putin. It appears Putin gets a perverse sense of joy in seeing how many moves it takes to checkmate President Obama – not if he can checkmate him.
OPTION TRADERS
Unless we go test 1867 in the SPX again we saw the highs in volatility and can start heading back down again. I have to make an important distinction. When I say volatility I am referring to implied volatility in the options as measured by the VIX. I am not saying the volatile swings up and down are over with.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
I guess it is not just a “vast right wing conspiracy”. Now Russia was hacking her too? How the hell do you think the republicans got Russia to spy on Hillary for them?
Of course her campaign manager stated “We have no evidence to suggest she replied to this email nor that she clicked on the attachment (that contained spyware)”.
She may be innocent in everything – a super genius who only gets stupid on things that get her into trouble. Just remember…..like Bill Cosby, just because there are 50 scandals doesn’t mean there is anything there.
RECOMMENDED READING
Attorney Stuff
DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
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