Monday
October 5, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Friday is going to really frustrate and infuriate trades who like things clean and obvious.
The futures were set to open normally until Friday’s unemployment and payroll numbers were released and then all hell broke lose. Essentially what the jobs numbers said is that unemployment hit a bottom and the jobs that were created were Starbucks jobs. This is not news to anyone paying attention, but somehow it shocked everyone else.
Real Economy: Ask any business owner (including Random Walk) how sales are compared to 2007 and people will tell you that sales still stink. No one can figure out how the economy has recovered as the claims state. I have been saying this for 5 years now and feel like a broken record, but it was proven Friday.
The E-mini futures immediately fell down 35 on the open. By about noon eastern time the market had worked its way back to about even. I sent in orders for POT class to get long the SPX and TSLA via risk reversals.
For the next 3 hours we climbed above the unchanged line and sat in a range from +3 to +8 in the E-minis. Then in the last hour we launched up another 20 E-mini points to close up +26 and the Dow up 200.
This was not a typical āVā bottom, which is a good thing. We are back to 1950 which has been the ceiling like 2,100 was 3 months ago for the SPX. From Wednesday and Thursday of last week it was looking and feeling like the SPX was going to test 1867, the lows in the limit down move of August 24th. As of Friday’s close we moved up over 57 points in the SPX from the day’s lows. That is a HUGE move.
It is important to note that we closed on the day’s highs.
TODAY
No real numbers are out today which is what the market would love to have for direction. After Friday’s head-fake down into Hades people were shocked to see the market take the horrendous news and make lemonade out of it. This bodes well for the market.
At 10:30 Sunday night E-minis are down -4 but ti think that is just the amateurs trading off of European markets. Bad news like Friday with a huge up day almost always means one thing ā too many shorts and too much fear to keep falling. One would have to assume that we are going higher from here.
OPTION TRADERS
The VIX was blasted on Friday moving from a high of 24.47 to close at 20.94. Even this number is too high given the fact that nothing is a concern anymore. The U.S. Government almost shutdown and no one cared. There is NO middle class in America anymore and no one cares. Now bad is not bad news or good news, it is just news.
We kicked a little butt on Friday, but not as much as I had hoped had my crystal ball been working.
You have to love the Iron condor legged for $0.10 debit. Like a sissy we could have done it for a credit had I been a little more patient.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
āFight to the Death?ā
So is the United States so long as we don’t have to do anything and give terrorists money in exchange for a āpretty pleaseā to be our friends. And those āDeath to Americaā chants…..the President has told us to not take them seriously. Those people just need jobs and asylum in the States. Even Jimmy Carter must be saying āWTF?ā
Attorney Stuff
DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesnāt mean a thing. The future is even scarier. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.
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