Friday
October 16, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Question:
What is the difference between Random Walk and the media?
Answer:
We are not journalists who try to fit some story with a news article, and then pound the two together with a hammer until it fits. We see a little more. Not because we are smarter than a journalist, but trading is our business.
Yesterday the media was reporting that the markets ran up 30 SPX points because traders felt that Fed changed their opinion about raising rates this year. That is a journalist’s answer and NOT correct. If there was a sudden sense of euphoria blanketing the markets because something somehow changed with the Fed, you will know tomorrow as we are up another 20 SPX points.
RW
It is our opinion that what you saw yesterday was nothing more than normal expiration phenomenon, just done a day early. Basket Traders (arbitrage, āprogram tradersā, etc.) take advantage of āfree moneyā situations when the markets are in turmoil We can all say that this has been the case for the last month. The more turmoil the more opportunity.
With āprogram tradingā traders usually acquire a big basket of short stock and hedge it with long synthetic stock, typically in the SPX ā especially now that the OEX is dead. At the end of a major expiration cycle (3rd week) the traders have to either move their synthetic stock out another month, or they have to buy stock back.
Typically on Friday morning when their hedges expire traders all rush in and buy shares on the open. This forces cash prices through the roof, even though we don’t notice the tsunami wave in the E-minis. This can be expensive when there is HUGE amounts of stock to buy though many different firms. Remember August 24th when some people liquidates AAPL at 92 on the open and a minute later the stock was at $100? The same thing happens in reverse on Friday mornings.
So it looks like yesterday was just people buying before the open today. The higher the market went the more determined people were to buy before it gets really expensive this morning. That is, in our opinion, all that happened yesterday. We doubt that there was any real change in the opinion of traders on what the Fed is going to do. Hell, we don’t think the Fed knows what they are going to do.
We saw the SAME THING happen on Thursday June 18th. You would think the media would catch on that once in a while the Thursday before the 3rd Friday the markets sometimes go nuts to the upside.
TODAY
You should know my opinion from what was written above.
I have no way of knowing if traders bought all the stock they needed or not. It does appear like they did a lot of buying. Typically what happens here is the market will open up stable. If there is still stock to buy we wont know until see see the cash settlement price of the SPX (.SET). After that there tends to be a few minutes of weakness.
The weakness comes from the specialists selling stock to traders at high prices and then walking the stock lower so they can buy back at cheaper prices.
After that there are a couple little head-fakes for the first hour and then the day is over. The big boys have been BUSY and are tired. They start the cocktails early and call it a month because their month moves from 3rd week to 3rd week ā not 1st day to 1st day.
After that things get boring.
Ā
MAUI SEMINAR
January 20, 21, 22
Free Dinner Cruise Thursday January 21
For more information on affordable hotels contact the office or watch the VIDEO with the following link:
POT CLASS TONIGHT
A Separate Update Coming
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
I would not stand in front of her on the emails, so standing behind her is probably the next best thing to running. What people still don’t get is that she can easily wiggle out of the hidden server, the rules she broke, etc. What she can’t run from is what is said in those emails.
You would think the Sec. Of State would be savvy enough to realize that there is NO privacy anymore. We even have those trucks with listening devices driving around like in the movie āV for Vendettaā.
———– —————– —————–
Of course he is going to run. The only the reason Hillary is winning with the Democrats is because some democrats don’t want a socialist (Sanders) as a president, and there are no other democrats running. This is too low hanging of fruit for him to not grab.
Attorney Stuff
DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesnāt mean a thing. The future is even scarier. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.
Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, Joe Kearnan, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time. We will sell products, but advise against buying them. We Do Not Give Advice.
When reading this you acknowledge that you agree to hold harmless Random Walk, LLC, its employees, independent contractors, authors, managers, owner(s), spouses, children, cousins, friends, bail bondsmen, and favorite bartender. In fact, you agree to grow up, accept some responsibility for your own actions, and stop believing the media that sells you on how nothing is your fault. You further agree in the antiquated and lost values that America is the land of opportunity and not the land of handouts. You agree any loss in the markets is a result of your own actions as we told you NOT to trade without consulting someone other than us.
All paper trades are SOLELY for example and to illustrate how certain strategies could perform without the benefit of hindsight and back-testing. You agree NOT to trade based on anything we say, do, write, advertise, etc. If we were smart we would be teaching high-school math and making the really big bucks. You agree to abide by the laws of your country and that it is legal to accept this transmission.
Every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy, but we are clueless. As a result it would be foolish and impossible to assure the accuracy of any numbers and/or come close to writing a sentence that is grammatically correct. You agree not to get on our case emotionally, physically, spiritually (no Voodoo dolls please) or legally when we screw up. We are doing our best to keep up with evolution, but it is a fast race and we are falling behind. If any of this stuff is too hard to accept please let us know and we will remove you from our mailing list and short term memory.
Random Walk deeply cares about each and every student. We try to keep the selling of products to a minimum. We believe our students are a result of attraction rather than promotion. This does NOT mean that the more attractive you are, the more we promote ourselves (in general).
Our products are written ONLY by floor traders, fund managers and retired floor traders. But that really doesnāt mean much. They are expensive and unique. That does NOT mean they (materials) come on a tablet of concrete from Mt. Sinai. . If you are still reading this, you will likely be the first to have gotten this far. No guarantee for accuracy is made. Nothing we do is audited and we make no promise of accuracy.
Because of the proprietary nature of our materials and the ease of electronic copying, all sales are final. There are far too many people who have no problem stealing our materials and putting them on torrents or copying them. These are the same low-life, selfish, whining, half-wit hypocrites that would cry like a newborn with a wet diaper if someone stole their car radio. They have to pay for our materials before stealing them, and live with their karma (and our legal team). Yes, we have caught a few and now have one person working on detective work solely.
Sales are far from our largest concern. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). āThank yousā are only handed out in countries where legal and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow āthank yousā please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke.
