Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
CYBER MONDAY COUNTDOWN CLOCK
Some VERY cool surprises coming in a couple of weeks.
Great Morning !
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
A new high in the markets today is all the media is reporting. Yet the new highs were marginal. The S&P was only up $1. The Dow did get above 17,700, but then was snuffed out by a decline in oil. Crude fell over $2 to close below $75. If this happened last month it would have dragged the Dow down 300 points (just a guesstimate). The Yen is still getting pounded down after announcing their QE. And the US dollar was lower but rebounded and is at 1.24 to the Euro.
The strong US dollar was being blamed (as well as Ebola, ISIS, and weak crude) for the October selling. Yet ISIS is still around. Crude is $5 lower than in October. The only thing gone is Ebola. So was it all Ebola causing the 10% drop?
OF COURSE NOT. As I have been saying for years, the market does what it is going to do. The media then takes whatever is going on in the world and blames/credits the market’s performance on that.
TODAY
We are 350 points away from 18,000. I find it hard to fathom that we will not test that area by the end of the year. KEEP IN MIND though that many late November-Early December markets are choppy.
There is a balance I mentioned yesterday. For many US companies most of their sales and profits come in the last month because of holiday spending. Remember that about 25% of people’s annual discretionary spending occurs in this month.
We will get the doomsayers predicting a lower spending season because jobs (though plentiful) are inadequate in pay. They will also cite the recent survey showing that person borrowing is at an all time high, so they will say the consumer is ātapped outā.
Others will say that personal spending should increase 6% because of the savings from cheap gas. I was at the mall tonight from 5:00pm to 8:00pm and it was a ghost town. Are they all waiting for post Thanksgiving?
Anyhow…I am a still bullish. Yet I am starting to feel that these bull moves higher are running out of steam. It almost feels as if the bounce off of October’s lows was a race to buy. The chart certainly shows that the rapid rise from under 16,000 to 17,700 was crazy fast. It has the smell of an emotional stampede rather than value investing. I am starting to get a little concerned that this thing is running out of kinetic energy and could fall. I don’t expect any great fall until after the Holiday season as that would be unprecedented. January 2 of the new year will see me overly hedged in POT.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
POT CLASS TONIGHT
A second request for those who were busy after the 2 hour and 15 minute class. If you want to know more about the BLACK OPS hedge we used to secure the downside in POT during OCT, let the office know. We will have to determine the best way in which to teach the criteria.
Thanks.
Too True To Be Funny
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Attorney Stuff
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