Great Morning!
Last day of the quarter today.
Yesterday was the WORST day of the year so far.
BIG WEEKEND NEWS BELOW
Closing Prices From Yesterday
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Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
The market opened down about -180, then climbed to where it was only down 100, or -14 E-minis points. It sat there and slowly sold off the rest of the day after the 10 minute rest.
Later in the day about 2:00pm Standard & Poors downgraded Greece’s debt to CCC-. Other than my brother and best friend, there is no lower debt rating I can think of. Yes they have a āDā for when things are in default, and āSDā, selective-default.
The market closed on the lows with the Dow down -350 and the E-mini down -45. The VIX climbed to almost 19%. I was going to sell some premium on the close for POT, but I am waiting to see how things open tomorrow. I think if I miss selling 19 volatility I will be able to sell 18% (which is still great), or move 20% if we keep falling.
It didn’t help that China said it would kick in money to keep Greece in the EU. The one surprise today is the EUR/USD. Sunday night the pair was down over 2 cents. During the day today it was up 1 cent, but closed down minimally at 1.12. This thing should have been hit by 2 cents, except people were positioned not to panic, meaning there are still shorts of this.
BOND/TLT
The bond market was up big on the opened and continued its climb all day as the market sank lower and lower. The TLT was up 3.05, which is a HUGE move, closing at 118.28. Keep in mind that despite the fear of rising interest rates there is a rush into bonds when the market gets spooked.
TODAY
This is an interesting place in the market. We closed right at the 200 day MA, historically a large support area. We also have the PMI and Case-Schiller number out today. Now it doesn’t matter what numbers come out as the market will run up or down regardless if the number is good or bad, it just is the excuse.
Today EVERYONE will be focusing on what is going on in Greece as it is the 1.5 billion euro payment date, and what is going on in Puerto Rico. Yesterday Puerto Rico stated they can not afford to pay their debt either. It is this domino effect of Puerto Rico, Italy, Portugal, and Spain all possibly doing the same thing Greece is doing that caused the markets to fall so hard yesterday. Had it just been Greece fears yesterday I doubt the Dow would have been down even 100 by the end of the day.
But it doesn’t matter. Days like yesterday are a crap shoot, and usually fear overshadows reason. Today will determine if yesterday’s sell-off was just fear, or if it was the start of something bigger ā like the end of the 6 year bull. I really doubt the bull is going to end because of Greece.
OPTION TRADERS
Volatility is going to open through the roof. I have been saying for a week volatility is too low for what is about to happen with Greece, one way or the other. I am waiting until we get to a point where the selling is done, and then I am going to sell premium for POT.
Ā
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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(Below) Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it didn’t receive any message. Those long distance calls just aren’t reliable, I suppose.
Perhaps it was sent from Obama’s house, not the White House.
Since he tends the confuse the two, that might be the problem.
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Attorney Stuff
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