Thursday
January 9 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.
Great Morning !
VEGAS: The February Vegas Class Itinerary will be posted on Monday.
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday
A big day for the bulls. The Dow closed up 323 points regardless of oil’s gyrations. Oil was up 0.50 and the market went up 270 points. After oil temporarily reversed to a net change of -0.80 ($1.30 reversal) the Dow pulled back 40 points. That’s it…40 measly points.
The media is attributing the run up to comments made by one of the Fed members, which may or may not be true. Prior to yesterday’s run higher I stated in the update that it felt like the market wanted to run up anyway. Oil stabilizing was also a sigh of relief which could have helped. I think the Fed members comments surely helped (perhaps 100 of the 300 points) but implying it was attributed to him is greatly oversimplifying things.
Consider that the Fed member stated it would be a mistake to start raising rates too soon, the bond market must not have heard his comments. The TLT was down a huger 1.74 points, which one would expect the opposite if his comments really held a lot of weight with the markets.
Probable reasons:
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Yes, Fed comments (enough already – tell it to the bond market)
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US dollar up for the 7th straight day and making new multi year highs
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Oversold markets with the S&P going through the 100 day moving average, and almost at the 200 day MA.
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Huge pessimism in the market for the first time in a long while
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Start of new year tax sellers done “puking” their positions.
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Yellen mentioning declining oil prices as a GOOD THING. Golly Gee, that statement sounds familiar.
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Oil not falling another $2.50 today
TODAY
I don’t think we are quite out of the woods in terms of volatility and market swings yet, but we shall see. Last year the January garbage was taken out in the 3rd and 4th week. This year it started on DAY 1.
If all the games of the January amateur hour are over, then we will likely get back to 18,000 by early next week. It would not surprise me if we pulled back a little today given the run higher we have had over the last two days, but I am still not comfortable with this market to make any assumptions/ predictions.
I am still in “wait and see” mode as we are pretty much now unchanged for the year – believe it or not. Down 4.5% and right back in one week. I am a little concerned when I see this behavior as it is often the lead-up tremors to a big quake. So in short…I am as confused as the next person. If this were not January I would be doing things a lot different.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
NEXT WEEK: Choosing the right hedge to an existing vertical spread.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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LOL ROFLMAO…..HE HE…
When is this guy going to take an economics class. This county can’t afford anything. We are on paper bankrupt. His allowance being cut by 10% has not really sunk in yet.
