Thursday
February 6,
2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
13 Days Until Las Vegas “Watch Me Trade and Ask Questions” Seminar
If you have questions that are detailed and will be best served on slides,
please submit them so that we can have time to prepare for the class.
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
I AM IN SHOCK. I am officially blown away by the fact that we were so strong right from the open. Typically the Sissies Of Wall Street (SOWS) would have their panties in a bunch with the news going on in Greece. We saw that at the end of the day, Wednesday and in the overnight session their normal modus operandi is to do the following:
1 – Panic
2 – Wet their pants and sell
3 – Steer blindly into space (while in soiled short pants).Wait for mommy.
4 – Wait for those more genetically predisposed to a higher testosterone level to come in and buy.
5 – Pull up panties and buy like you never sold in the first place
6 – Repeat next time.
Yet yesterday they came out buying and didn’t stop until the close. They did have oil going in their favor and bonds as well, so it wasn’t too balsy, but I still give them credit.
I can smell sanity again.
TODAY
Today or Monday we would expect to see the Dow and SPX test the start of the year highs. I am bullish as they get (as POT people can attest to), but am not real happy with the overall scheme of things.
Th entire planet with the exception of the US is weak. China just made #1 economy in the world and now it is weak. The US numbers show this economy is no better than the rest of the world, it is just that we calculate our numbers differently (can you say fudged?).
Yes, unemployment is great. Everyone who ever dreamed of one day working at McDonald’s or Costco (not that there is anything wrong with having a job there) is now gainfully employed. It is a problem when that is the only jobs being created. The $150K a year jobs people had back in 2008-2009 are lost and have not come back.
The US economy is giving confidence to the rest of the world that things will get better, but if we even stumble a little, this whole house of cards may fall. I STILL SAY this is a bubble created by the Fed.
Keep in mind that the Fed is coming under pressure by the Republicans, now to be audited. This came up before in 2008 when there was a push for the Fed. Fannie and Freddie to be audited, but Barney Frank assured us the housing industry was sound and there was no need to do an audit. Well, it is that time again. If it does start and begins to look like a political witch hunt, instead of a true fact finding bi-partisan mission, GET OUT FAST will be my war cry.
We are only at 18,000 with an inability to sell off hard because the FED is creating this bubble to fix the last bubble (banking) to fix the previous bubble (housing) to fix the previous bubble, etc. The only problem is the bubbles are now so big that we may not be able to get out the $1 trillion dollar bills and patch up the hole.
BUT FOR NOW
But the bubble will keep expanding until you hear a POP sound. There is no point in trying to fade it (get short). One goes for the free ride while hedged. Then when it does pop, you blow out of all but the hedges and go for a fun ride down. That will be where the real money is!
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
We kicked some butt yesterday. We added a new risk reversal sale (long $10 call spread and short $5 near ATM put spread) for a very small debit. We cleaned up some positions expiring today and took some profits in the RSX. Fun times!
Positive Time Decay (the good kind) and positive deltas.
What is there not to love!
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
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