Random Walk Trading.com
Thursday
April 23, 2015
55-RWT-0008
TM
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Earnings started 2 weeks ago
Right now 76% beat earnings
48% miss the revenue number
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
A STRNGE day yesterday. The Existing Home Sales Numbers came in up 6.1%, which is almost double what was expecting. This would indicate (if it was an alone number) that the economy is heating up.
The market ran up a little, then fell quickly and then started to work its way up slowly the rest of the day. That in itself is nothing. But what was weird was how bond fell hard in the process, but didn’t take the market down with it.
In a market that is so closely linked to low interest rates and paranoia that the Fed is going to have to raise rates, one would think that this number combined with rising interest rates would shock the market a little. In the market’s defense the climb up 88 points was very slow and hesitant, keeping one eye on the bond market.
TSLA
Tesla was up $12 before falling a little to close up $10. Elon Musk reported that he is going to be selling batteries to run homes shortly, and this had the stock flying.
TODAY
Strange times is all I can say to describe the current market conditions. This will be the third or forth time we are back to these levels where the Dow, the SPX, and the Nasdaq are all less than 1% away from all time highs. Yet the last three times we were here something came in to shock the market and we fell.
This action of lower highs and higher lows (forming into a funnel) would have many traders saying that we are about to break out of this trend in one direction or the other. Either this market fails a 4th time up here and we take a long time to get back again, or we are about to see an explosive move to the upside.
That said….Since we are in the strongest bull market the world has ever seen, I would (as a trader) say that we have to stay long the trend until a blow off run higher occurs. That said, I did try to hedge a big position in POT class on the close yesterday (just in case), but missed it (so I have to try again today).
FRIDAY
Also keep in the back of your mind that Friday Germany is meeting in Riga with Greece to produce a deal that could unlock more bailout funds to Greece. Greece is F(#(d. They are so short on cash that they are taking reserves from schools, social security funds, etc- Sort of like the US government, huh?
The difference is people in the US retire at 65 whereas in Greece the average age of retirement is birth. In the US some people will actually get a job at Walmart when their checks stop coming. In Greece they will riot and steal. Wait, so will the US. Hmm…..
Anyhow…
An unsuccessful resolution could trigger stocks in the EU to fall hard, which would have a ripple effect her. A surprise resolution (doubtful even though Greece is screwed without one) could spark a surprise rally. What people don’t understand is that kicking Greece out of the EU would be of benefit for every other country in the region. Greece is that drunk uncle that always borrows $20 from you but has NEVER considered paying you back, and looks down on you for being stupid enough to lend them money in the first place.
Last night we covered three different risk reversals ā 2 SPX (one hedged and one not) as well as TSLA. We talked about SPX after hours trading, and a little bit about what I look at to gauge market direction (a very brief overview).
Separate update is coming.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
Attorney Stuff
DISCLAIMER (Seriously!) All data above is provided for informational purposes only. Random Walk makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of the data.
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesnāt mean a thing. The future is even scarier. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.
Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time. We will sell products, but advise against buying them. We Do Not Give Advice.
When reading this you acknowledge that you agree to hold harmless Random Walk, LLC, its employees, independent contractors, authors, managers, owner(s), spouses, children, cousins, friends, bail bondsmen, and favorite bartender. In fact, you agree to grow up, accept some responsibility for your own actions, and stop believing the media that sells you on how nothing is your fault. You further agree in the antiquated and lost values that America is the land of opportunity and not the land of handouts. You agree any loss in the markets is a result of your own actions as we told you NOT to trade without consulting someone other than us.
All paper trades are SOLELY for example and to illustrate how certain strategies could perform without the benefit of hindsight and back-testing. You agree NOT to trade based on anything we say, do, write, advertise, etc. If we were smart we would be teaching high-school math and making the really big bucks. You agree to abide by the laws of your country and that it is legal to accept this transmission.
Every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy, but we are clueless. As a result it would be foolish and impossible to assure the accuracy of any numbers and/or come close to writing a sentence that is grammatically correct. You agree not to get on our case emotionally, physically, spiritually (no Voodoo dolls please) or legally when we screw up. We are doing our best to keep up with evolution, but it is a fast race and we are falling behind. If any of this stuff is too hard to accept please let us know and we will remove you from our mailing list and short term memory.
Random Walk deeply cares about each and every student. We try to keep the selling of products to a minimum. We believe our students are a result of attraction rather than promotion. This does NOT mean that the more attractive you are, the more we promote ourselves (in general).
Our products are written ONLY by floor traders, fund managers and retired floor traders. But that really doesnāt mean much. They are expensive and unique. That does NOT mean they (materials) come on a tablet of concrete from Mt. Sinai. . If you are still reading this, you will likely be the first to have gotten this far. No guarantee for accuracy is made. Nothing we do is audited and we make no promise of accuracy.
Because of the proprietary nature of our materials and the ease of electronic copying, all sales are final. There are far too many people who have no problem stealing our materials and putting them on torrents or copying them. These are the same low-life, selfish, whining, half-wit hypocrites that would cry like a newborn with a wet diaper if someone stole their car radio. They have to pay for our materials before stealing them, and live with their karma (and our legal team). Yes, we have caught a few and now have one person working on detective work solely.
Sales are far from our largest concern. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). āThank yousā are only handed out in countries where legal, and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow āthank yousā please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke.
Pleas read http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp
