October 3, 2014
Update 2
“Unemployment numbers leading to gains in the pre-markets” (Carl Quintinela – CNBC)
I call BS. – Futures were HIGHER before the numbers. The cause? Hong Kong is peaceful after the protestors deadline, and Ebola is not turning out to be a pandemic as people feared. Futures were up 11 already at 2am last night and up 14 before the numbers came out. Now they are up 10, so we could say that the unemployment numbers are forcing the markets down 4 E-mini points. Why must people (even smart people) F$&K with the real story just to make headlines?
Good Morning!
Celebration time for Random Walk! Back in the housing crisis of 2008-2009 we made a promise to people that we will “Cut prices and not raise them until unemployment got back under 6%.
It came in today at 5.9%. We are going to act like the Fed with interest rates and not raise them until AFTER CYBER MONDAY.
Interesting
Don’t get too far over your skis celebrating. Most of the jobs added were in the service industry – like it has been for years. This is a joke recovery, and finally bonds realize it. Bonds are not falling after this number like you would expect. Why are they not falling? Because these are Starbucks and Burger King jobs – not executive and management jobs being created. Sure, I expect Obama to run out and take credit today at a teleprompter near you – but people have an inane sense that this economy doesn’t feel like 2007.
Even Ben Bernanke just got turned down on his refinance loan. Even Uncle Ben can’t get a loan when all he has to do is going on a two week speaking tour and pay the house off. Banks are not lending to the average American even with perfect credit scores. Jobs created are college summer type jobs, and nothing you can support a family on. And Europe is teetering on the verge of a second recession.
This is why Obama’s approval ratings are still in the toilet – not counting Benghazi gate, IRS-gate, Fast and Furious, “I learned about it on TV gate”, ignoring ISIS way too long, permanent vacation(s), never taking blame for anything, are don’t forget the new problems with Obamacare. People can forgive a president for anything as long as they are getting rich themselves. They are NOT.
POT PEOPLE
Yesterday within 30 points of the lows we did a risk reversal of buying calls and selling puts. This was done to clean up our upside. In addition we had on a long put condor (Bearish) and sold out the long spread portion of the trade (Bullish). This leaves us with a HUGE open coming soon give that the Dow is now looking 105 points higher.
GREEKS
Below are our greeks. DO NOT be concerned about the huge negative theta. That is not a real number after the open because we are past an inflection point, but will go on the other side of it on the open. IN other words, this will flip from a negative theta to a large positive theta at 9:31am.
DELTAS of long 411 mean that we will be up over $>6k on the open, so pay attention. I want to lock that gain in toot sweet and will be sending an update.
ITALY PEOPLE
I think we were the only ones riding long deltas ans short premium yesterday. Maybe that is why we are bouncing. It was NOT the unemployment numbers that the media stated was the cause for today’s rally.
Either way, we will be up another $2k in the account after the open. I may leave this alone or adjust. I have to see how things look.
Either way…have a great day! !
