Friday
September 5, 2014
1-855-RWT-0008
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Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.
ISIS RELATED NEWS
Disclaimer. Any idiot terrorists are NOT to hold Random Walk responsible. This is the sole creation of Scott who will be happy to discuss his creation and opinion with you personally. In the mean time, the gates of hell are welcoming you.
NOTE: I am in ITALY AND WATCHING THE MARKETS….(ALMOST) seamless transition so far.
Happy Day!
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
It was another horrendous day for the bond markets, but one where it look like NATO might actually be still in business.
Recent years has seen the international community and America look at NATO as a toothless and symbolic dog. It was considered pretty much a waste of money in America as we spend 4% of our military budget on NATO with no benefits.
With all that is going on in Russia and talks of NATO adding a quick response team to it’s list of responsibilities, it appears (at least on the surface) that the majority of the world is starting to take Putin seriously. And what makes things more interesting is that Putin is actually acting a little more submissive.
This back-tracking on Putin’s claims that he has no control over so-called “non-Russian” separatists in the Ukraine has the market moving higher on the open. The rally was slow, measured but did peak at new highs. After the SPX crossed the 2010 area we held there with no further advances until we eventually reversed, which has been the modus operandi of late – move one way and then close in the other direction.
I am not sure if it was the heavy bond market that caused the late day selling or more realistic expectations of the amount of control NATO actually has over Putin’s agenda.
Today
It appears that the markets were getting a little ahead of themselves yesterday when making new highs but were pointing the direction for that last leg to 17,500 area (give or take a couple hundred points). Important economic numbers are out today that may help move the market higher IF the numbers stink. But I suspect that is not the likely outcome. A more cautious approach to the NATO meeting and future of geopolitical issues is likely what we will be seeing today with a small down market.
REMEMBER that my long term guess for what will move the markets up dramatically from here is:
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We have problems with Russia in the Ukraine. Russia will likely intensify the Ukraine mess to put pressure on his negotiation ability.
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ISIS was completely non-strategic and retarded in their threats against the US and Russia. One always plays the two big boys against each other instead of making themselves an idiot sandwich. Not these geniuses.
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Putin and the US both want a resolution to the Ukraine issue. Putin can’t appear to be weak ad back down at this point, especially with elections next month.
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Resolution? Russia and the US act together to totally devastated ISIS and its leadership militarily. Russia will have the role of killing leaders, something the US finds distasteful (with the exception of Bin Laden). A massive and global sigh of relief will take place. Putin will pull out of the Ukraine and not lose face because the victory over ISIS will overshadow the Ukraine. Boom…stock market runs 300 – 400 points higher in a day.
Again, this is just a guess but when highly complicated political issues come up with super powers both sides are wanting a victory, and when both sides can have a clear victory over a bunch of loser, sissy, terrorists idiots like ISIS, it is a HUGE win-win. I just wish there was a way to pay the military to let me work the gun in one of the tanks or planes that mows down those idiots. I would love to bring some heads back as gifts to the two reporter’s family.
With the long SPX weekly 1995-2010 call spread closed out yesterday our deltas have gone from a positive 300 to a negative 100. Any pull back today will result in me getting longer deltas again in the POT account. A separate update is coming.
With the top Russia general wanting the ability to wage a nuclear first strike against the US, I doubt we are going much higher in the immediate future. Of course this is all just bluff, but it does affect the markets.
I am of the mind that if a nuclear war does occur no one will be around (or want to be around) after, so being short puts wont matter. The next big drop based on this news is a put selling opportunity. It is September after all the worst month (historically) for the markets.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
A separate update is coming.
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