Screenshot 2014-02-21 09.08.47

Monday March 17, 2014

RandomWalkTrading.com

1(855)RWT-0008

Condor-Copia Class

If you do not hear anything different right on the open, I am going to keep in the same paper trade example as we showed in the class. 

You will recall that I was liking the position; however, because anything could happen in Russia over the weekend I said I would change the position if the market did something goofy.

Last night futures (E-mini) opened 3 points lower and fell to down 7 points (about a 60 point drop in the Dow). At midnight eastern the futures are up 0.25. So as is USUALLY the case, it appears that all the threats by America and Russia were BS.

Russia did shoot down one of our drones, BUT Obama has not apologized for putting it in the air yet. I think the drone was lost and meant to be over America, but it was shot down over the Ukraine. Now China and Russia have a matching set. They are drone buddies.

So nothing is happening yet and it appears the trade will be delicious still on the open.

yesterday DowJones

The Dow closed down 43.22 at 16,065.67

Yawn. 

AAPL

AAPL closed down $5.96 exactly once again. This time the settlement was at $524.69.

Scary, huh? The stock is actually below the 530 level it could not fall under. Keep in mind, premium sellers, that this is the same price the stock was 2 years ago. Not as volatile as you thought. 

VIX

The VIX was up 1.60 at 17.82

I guess even professional traders were nervous about the election in the Ukraine – Not that Stevie Wonder could not see how it was going to turn out.

Screen Shot 2014-01-08 at 7.17.13 AM

Closed up 0.02 at 108.52

POT people:
Might get short it today to place another Risk Reversal

Silver and Gold

GLD = closed up 0.89 at 133.10

SLV = closed up 0.26 at 20.62

TESLA

Tesla closed down 6.82 at 230.97

Capture

RSX (Market Vectors Russia)


This stupid index has been down about 30% in the last 3-5 months, so being stupid I got long it in POT . Who doesn’t want to buy “the end of the world”? POT people, keep in mind we are long 20 naked May calls (ya…Hooooo!). 

RW TodayCapture3

Yesterday

A little selling, but not as much as the previous day. The Dow was only down a little more than 40 points, leaving some traders (not me) to surmise why we didn’t drop below 16,000. The reason we didn’t drop is obvious. The market would fall out of bed IF there was even a SMALL chance of a war starting up, even a small Vietnam type of thing. But the markets know that Russia is thinking, “What is the US going to do about it?” And they are right. 

 

Capture6

Today

The economic numbers mean NOTHING this week. We have a deadline in Russia for absorption of the Ukraine, which is now 3 days away. The US is going to flap their lips about how the election is wrong, and make strong warnings about taking away Russia’s allowance.

I HATE TO SAY THIS (as I am as patriotic as they come) but we are viewed as cowards around the world. We are Putin’s B$*@CH. We want to attack Syria but Putin says “Nyet” so we don’t. Putin wants the Ukraine and we say no, so he says “K Chortoo “.

POT

POT-

A lot of updates last week, especially Thursday and Friday.

This is out of the norm, but we have on some wonderful downside hedges, short premium, and long deltas for when the bounce comes.

Key Trade To Watch?
Hedge Below

Capture7

The above example was done for a -$1.20 and closed at $3.35. This expires Friday. The great thing about this trade is:

 

  • The market may NOT move that much between now and Wednesday as the Russian’s are going to “take over the Ukraine” on Wednesday. Actually I think it is a little late to use future tense, but you know what I mean.

  • Time decay is kicking in faster and faster.

  • We are right NOW at the golden -sweet – spot. A Dow close of 16,000 – 16,300 could mean $14, 000 on this trade…..a LOT MORE than the risk we were looking to hedge. That would pay for POT for what….a decade? Nice!

  • One has to be right once in a blue moon, right

New POT people. Keep in mind that new people are always lost for a while. You are coming to a movie that has been going on for a while, so it will take a few days to catch up to the plot and characters.

A separate Update will be coming for POT. 

Too True To Be Funny

WTF

(Never a joke, but always funny)

I find humor in nothing this week. Just wondering when our soldiers will be required to get fitted for ballet shoes. Oh that’s right….there are none anymore since we are now Pre-WWII level military status. Since MOST of my friends are in the military or retired, I find this to be as bad of times as when Jimmy Peanut Carter was in office. Great human being – SHIT President.

Okay…found two!

 

Capture8 Capture9Attorney StuffMug

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