Monday March 12 2014
RandomWalkTrading.com
1–(855)–RWT-0008
The Year of Selling Premium Has Started in POT
More selling on the open.
Next Online Class
Condors, Iron Condors, Iron Cockroaches and Unbalanced Condors all included!
3 More Days
The Dow closed down 67.43 at 16,351.25
AAPL closed up $5.17 at $536.09
Yesterday’s Morning Update Forecast Repeated
The stock seems to have huge buying interest every-time it falls below $530, which is why I got long some deltas for the POT examples. For example, when the Dow was down 110, AAPL shares were down on the day by about $1, then immediately bounced to up $0.50 on the day – when the market was looking its worst.
The VIX closed higher to settle at 14.80 (up 0.60)
Closed up 0.28 at 106.32
POT people:
Below is the current TLT position on 30 contracts placed for a small credit via a leg using to Risk Reversals (Maui 14 Material – FINISHING TOUCHES). I intend to do another one (if things align right) before Thursday’s numbers.
GLD = closed up 0.73 at 129.86
SLV = closed up .03 at 20.04
SPOT gold closed at 1,349.50. Spot Silver closed at $20.89
Tesla closed down 4.43 at $234.41
Yesterday
The Dow was up on the day and began to sell off. There was not any real numbers of significance. If I didn’t know better I would suspect that the selling is coming from intelligent money closing out large positions. This is (if true) typical of what happens a month or so before the end of the bullish cycle.
Today
It is hard to say and getting harder and harder to predict. I suppose that what would make the most sense for the ending portion of a large bull market would be for today to be lackluster, or even down a little. This will be like a spring recoiling tighter. Then Thursday or Friday’s numbers would create an elation and strong rally. We are only 200 points from the Dow being at all time highs, and area it keeps falling from (despite other indexes making new highs).
The fact that many of the areas of largest strength for 2013 (high tech, Boeing, etc) are now weaker than the market as a whole is further indication the big money is leaving certain areas. But no big fire ever starts without an initial flash. Here that flash is one last up market feeding frenzy. A run up that seems to be without legs, rather one where people just seem to buy anything for fear of missing out on the party.
POT-
On Friday we bought a $15 wide SPX put spread. At the lows yesterday we sold another $15 point put spread much further OTM. We now have on the mother-of-all condors. The problem is that we didn’t open down enough to get it on for free, so I have $1.20 invested in it. I will get that back. I hate spending money on hedges.
New POT people. Keep in mind that new people are always lost for a while. You are coming to a movie that has been going on for a while, so it will take a few days to catch up to the plot and characters.
Attorney Stuff
DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the DailyPlanet newspaper.
We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesn’t mean a thing. The future is even scarier. There is no guarantee the sun will come up tomorrow. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We strongly recommend against trading, and request you seek out professional advice when ignoring this advice.,
Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, Joe Kearnan, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time.
When reading this you acknowledge that you agree to hold harmless Random Walk, LLC, its employees, independent contractors, authors, managers, owner(s), spouses, children, cousins, friends, bail bondsmen, and favorite bartender. In fact, you agree to grow up, accept some responsibility for your own actions, and stop believing the media that sells you on how nothing is your fault. You further agree in the antiquated and lost values that America is the land of opportunity and not the land of handouts. You agree any loss in the markets is a result of your own actions as we told you NOT to trade without consulting someone other than us.
All paper trades are SOLELY for example and to illustrate how certain strategies could perform without the benefit of hindsight and back-testing. You agree NOT to trade based on anything we say, do, write, advertise, etc. If we were smart we would be teaching high-school math and making the really big bucks. You agree to abide by the laws of your country and that it is legal to accept this transmission.
Every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy, but we are clueless. As a result it would be foolish and impossible to assure the accuracy of any numbers and/or come close to writing a sentence that is grammatically correct. You agree not to get on our case emotionally, physically, spiritually (no Voodoo dolls please) or legally when we screw up. We are doing our best to keep up with evolution, but it is a fast race and we are falling behind. If any of this stuff is too hard to accept please let us know and we will remove you from our mailing list and short term memory.
Random Walk deeply cares about each and every student. We try to keep the selling of products to a minimum. We believe our students are a result of attraction rather than promotion. This does NOT mean that the more attractive you are, the more we promote ourselves (in general).
Our products are written ONLY by retired floor traders, fund managers and money manger acting as educators only. They are expensive and unique. That does NOT mean they (materials) come on a tablet of concrete from Mt. Sinai. Though we make every attempt to do things accurately, we are human and make mistakes.
Because of the proprietary nature of our materials and the ease of electronic copying, all sales are final.
Sales are far from our largest concern. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). “Thank yous” are only handed out in countries where legal and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow “thank yous” please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke.
