Morning Update: January 1, 2014

Thursday Jan 2 , 2013

Great Morning!

• Happy New Year

• We will be putting a lot of messages for POT people in the update. It will be under the label: POTHeads! (Yes AK, we know what you were doing 2 days ago).

• Only Weeks Until Maui ’14, session #1 I can’t wait.

Random Walk hopes everyone had a safe and joyous New Year!

Another record day for the Dow closing up 73 points at 16,577 for the year

This is a 30% increase for 2013, the alleged unlucky ’13. It was an unlucky year for market bears as we really only had one sell off, it was weak, and shallow. Volatility didn’t even really spike. A government shutdown could not hurt a market where the Fed is throwing out money by the truck loads.

Bulls, it is true that the saying “Never fight the Fed” is real and true. But that doesn’t mean that the markets can’t correct, and big. We had our first taper of $10bln a couple weeks ago, and historically with a new Fed Chairman and new rate policy a crash comes within 6 months.

I would recommend to even my worst enemy to brush up on your hedging techniques like we are doing in the POT class all this month. Tell those that you love to learn to hedge their stocks (either through Random Walk or someone else – we don’t care who). They can go to our competition if they like and we would be delighted. We just don’t want to see the first big drop in a long time wipe people out. The longer the wait, the bigger the drop, and the more off guard people are (typically).

In short: Start the New Year out right, and not wondering why you gave back all last years gains.

AAPL closed up $6.50 at $561.02

POT Heads! Recall that we are long the AAPL risk reversal that is being taught in Maui ’14, and need the stock to close above $560 on Friday.

The VIX was up 0.16 at 13.72

I was wrong when I anticipated the traders taking out yesterdays time decay on Tuesday. Apparently the majority of traders were buying back short premium.

I don’t know if there were rumors in the media of a terrorist attack planned for New Years eve in Time Square, or what. I can tell you one thing, even a Jihad terrorist couldn’t tolerate watching Miley Cyrus singing. Blowing themselves up is one thing, but self-flagellation of the ear drums is another. They don’t want an Achy Breaky Eardrum.

The ETF closed down 0.65 at 101.86

POT Heads!…..I think I am doing something in here SOON. I will let you know.

GLD = 116.12 up 0.73
SLV = 18.71 down 0.14

If a catastrophe, inflation, or economic downturn happens silver tends to outpace gold. The ratio of gold to silver price is as low as 16 to 1 (historically). Right now it is 62 to 1, so POT people, expect to see a pair trade eventually.

(spot gold = 1,205.50) (spot silver = 19.445)

TSLA closed down 2.011 at 150.429

he stock closed down 0.23 at 14.99

POT Heads! This is our HALO Position.

Yesterday
Yahooooo! Bulls got their 30% year with a slow rally higher to close the year at all time highs.

Today
On the open there will be some buying. We will see tectonic shifts in names that were bullish and now becoming bearish are traders take profits in some names to buy undervalued names elsewhere. The first couple weeks of the New Year tend not to surprise anyone, and generally are mildly bullish. Typically in the 3^rd or 4^th week a down move comes. We did have a major shift from this paradigm in 2000 when the Nasdaq Bubble burst coming out of the shoot, but that was after Greenspan screamed for 2 years about “irrational exuberance” before the Nasdaq finally fell over 80%.

Oh, if you were not hedged back then….

PLEA

Please tell someone you know that they do not have to be a victim in the government created stock market bubble. I don’t care where they learn to hedge from. Send them somewhere else if you like. Buy them our BASICS book for New Year. It cost less than a movie ticket for you both. Buy them someone else book, but help a friend out.

We reset the account to $100,000 as we do every Jan 1. This is don’t to simulate how certain strategies are reacting to our trades, and to keep track of our progress.

Last week’s POT session we voted on a couple of items.

POT Mini-Class

on Legging into expiration synthetics and butterflies is going to be held February 20 – 21.

POT Schedule (Next classes)

• Catastrophe Planning & When Things Go Wrong

• Legging Into Put Protection Butterflies

• Scott Lights It Up

• Advanced Currencies.

Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.

January Calendar

Too True To Be Funny

(Never a joke, but always funny)

Attorney Stuff

DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)

Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the DailyPlanet newspaper.

We did NOT get any TARP money, so we are not aligned with any politician. We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesn’t mean a thing. The future is even scarier. There is no guarantee the sun will come up tomorrow. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.

Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, Joe Kearnan, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time.

When reading this you acknowledge that you agree to hold harmless Random Walk, LLC, its employees, independent contractors, authors, managers, owner(s), spouses, children, cousins, friends, bail bondsmen, and favorite bartender. In fact, you agree to grow up, accept some responsibility for your own actions, and stop believing the media that sells you on how nothing is your fault. You further agree in the antiquated and lost values that America is the land of opportunity and not the land of handouts. You agree any loss in the markets is a result of your own actions as we told you NOT to trade without consulting someone other than us.

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Our products are written ONLY by floor traders, fund managers and retired floor traders. They are expensive and unique. That does NOT mean they (materials) come on a tablet of concrete from Mt. Sinai. We do NOT sell “special software”, though occasionally we give some out for FREE to our current students. If you enjoy buying software please go to Best Buy. If you are still reading this, you will likely be the first to have gotten this far. No guarantee for accuracy is made.

Because of the proprietary nature of our materials and the ease of electronic copying, all sales are final. There are far too many people who have no problem stealing our materials and putting them on torrents or copying them. These are the same low-life, selfish, whining, half-wit hypocrites that would cry like a newborn with a wet diaper if someone stole their car radio. They have to pay for our materials before stealing them, and live with their karma (and our legal team). Yes, we have caught a few and now have one person working on detective work solely.

Sales are far from our largest concern. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). “Thank yous” are only handed out in countries where legal and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow “thank yous” please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke.