admin@RandomWalkTrading.com
1–(855)–RWT-0008
Thursday December19, 2013
Only 4 weeks until the FIRST Maui ’14 class.
The second one is a week later.
Combo Spreads, Risk Reversals, Customized Trading Plan, Market Psychology, 2 Days of trading,and so much more ……
The Dow closed up 292.71 at 16,167.97 (up 1.84%)
AAPL closed down $4.22 at $550.77.
This was a very bullish move considering the news. It was expected that AAPL would announce having reached a deal with China Mobile, and they hadn’t. In addition Jabil (JBL), a supplier of circuits to AAPL, lost 20.5% of its value yesterday.
AAPL was down as much as $12 before coming back during the post FOMC announcement.
The VIX was down 2.41 at 13.80%. It likely still has a little room to fall today.
The TLT was down 0.52 at 102.77 despite the Fed stating that they want to keep rates low longer than previously anticipated.
Metals were smashed once again.
GLD = 117.61 down 1.04
SLV = 19.09 down 0.05
TSLA closed down 4.48 at 147.98
14.75, up $2.10 HUGE numbers of the Jan 15 strike call traded (13,900). POT people, keep in mind that we own the 14-15 call spread for$0.35 as of yesterday when we notice the volume spiking.
Yesterday
Uncle Ben Bernanke gave the bulls an easily Christmas present. He did begin the taper by cutting back $10 bln on QE (down to $75 bln a month), but tempered it with promises to pump it back up again (and higher) if needed. He also said he was going to keep rates low longer than expected. Since low interest rates stink for savers, the only alternative people have is to own stocks. This sent the Dow flying up almost 300 points to all time highs.
The taper did come as a surprise to me and most everyone else. But instead of just cutting back on one thing Bernanke gave a replacement which was fine for the markets.
Today
Well now that this is over (FOMC meeting) I am much more comfortable playing this market from the long side. I want to reiterate a million times that we have a CRASH coming, but not quite yet. I still hold that it will be by the end of the first quarter, most likely at the end of January or beginning of March. I will be more precise in my guess as we get closer.
Back in May or June I started saying that we were going to close the Dow out at 16,500 on December 31 ….+/- 300 points. It looks like it might actually be prophetic. With the Fed FOMC meeting behind us the last of the nightmare potentials are behind us, and we can cruise through the last 2 weeks of the year with little worry about anything (other than Obamacare, Congress messing something up, Iran being attacked by Israel or Saudi Arabia, Syria gas attacks being staged coming back to bite Obama, actual facts about Benghazi actually leaking out and impeaching the President, etc.).
Today?
We might gyrate around a little up and down as the market tries to find a new home after the new information on interest rates and QE is available to price stock portfolios more accurately.
So for the rest of the month, baring a politically created nightmare situation, we should coast higher by another 2-3%. Many funds are under invested and have to deploy cash into the markets so that at the end of the year they do not appear to be idiots for having billions in cash during a year when the Dow was up 28%. Makes sense, don’t it?
POT People. Remember that I am calling an audible on the class schedule and setting up HUGE downside protection positions on December 30th class (that was moved earlier by 2 days because of New Years).
PLEA
Please tell someone you know that they do not have to be a victim in the government created stock market bubble. I don’t care where they learn to hedge from. Send them somewhere else if you like. Buy them our BASICS book for Christmas. Buy them someone else book But help a friend out.
Last week’s POT session we voted on a couple of items.
POT Mini-Class
on Legging into expiration synthetics and butterflies is going to be held February 20 – 21.
POT Schedule (Next classes)
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Catastrophe Planning & When Things Go Wrong
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Legging Into Put Protection Butterflies
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Scott Lights It Up
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Advanced Currencies.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
(Never a joke, but always funny)
Attorney Stuff
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