Morning Update: April 2, 2014

The Dow was up 74.95, closing at 16,532.61

We are now 57 points away from a new high. This is all you will hear about in CNBC today. 

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AAPL closed up 4.91 at 541.65

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The VIX closed down 0.78 at 13.10

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Down 0.92 at 107.89.

POT people: Recall that we are long the risk reversal that kicks in at 107.5 on the downside.

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GLD Closed down 0.22 at 123.39

SLV Closed up 0.02 at 19.06

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Tesla was up $8.52 at 216.97

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Closed up 0.20 at 24.19

POT people, remember that we are still long 20 cts of the April 22 calls.

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Yesterday

The Dow was up about 50 points all day, but ran to the highs on the close as short sellers are likely getting squeezed. Today should show them even more pain. 

Today

I am spit-balling here. If I had to place money on this opinion for today specifically I would say the following:

I think we are going to teeter around all time highs in the Dow. Since the SPX & OEX are now at all-time highs all that is left is the Dow (57 points away). What people are missing is that the Nasdaq is still pretty far away from their highs, so I suspect it will begin to outperform the other indexes.

So I would speculate that we go for a new high, but back off by the end of the day, leaving the markets perched to launch well past the old highs another day. Again, this is speculating. In fact this is hard to judge on any given day.

But the fact that we are nearing all time highs, interest rates are low, etc. we are almost assured to be going well above the Dow highs until the NASDAQ catches up. But this will one day end, and it will not be pretty. Remember that the markets historically collapse about 6 months after a new Fed takes office. In addition interest rates are going higher. EVERY bull market that has lasted more than 4 years has ended in an inverted yield curve and a recession starting. Some are saying we are already in one, or never came out of one. 

POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.

POT people….

Don’t forget that all the positions for POT are in OA, and you can get hold of them (if in POT) at anytime of day or night.

Contact the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details. 

Too True To Be Funny

(Never a joke, but always funny)

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