Tuesday
April 15, 2014
Random Walk’s Mission:
To help 1% of the population learn that they do NOT have to be wiped out in an economic catastrophe and/or market crash, and make it as easy as sending an email.
Happy Day!
This Saturday
(Website says it will be 3 hours, but I suspect it might go 4 hours. It has a LOT of material in it that I find hard to believe will be completed in anywhere near 3). (Details at bottom of this update).
The Dow
The Dow was up 146.49 at 16,173.24
AAPL
AAPL closed up 2.07 at 521.68
The VIX
The VIX closed down 0.92 at 16.11
TLT
Down 0.29 at 110.44
Silver and Gold
GLD Closed up 0.92 at 127.85
SLV Closed up 0.02 at 19.21
TSLA
Tesla was down 5.69 at 198.09
RSX (Russian Index)
Closed down 0.76 at 22.74
Escalating tensions in the region forced the RSX down as concerns in the Ukraine popped its head out again. It did not help that Russian planes buzzed a US Navy Warship.
Yesterday
The market opened up about 110 points. From there it slowly climbed up another 40 points for a net change of +150. At 2:00pm eastern the market began to sell off as has been normal for the last couple of weeks. The E-mini futures were actually down -$2.50 on the day. Then at about 3:05pm, the final hour of trading, the market ran up to the highs of the day.
Today
It all goes back to the same thing……if you have money to invest where are you going to put it to get the best return for the lowest risk levels?
Commodities? Too risky and unconventional for most people.
Bonds / T-Bills Sold to the public that a “diversified portfolio” should have a portion in their account, but seriously? Even the uneducated public intuitively know that 10 year bonds at 2.5% will be a lousy investment over the long term.
Gold/Silver? People have been sold on this, and many people heed the advise, but probably own enough for now until inflation raises its head. A lot of people in the media claim it has more to fall.
Real Estate. This is tough. Other than owning a home banks are not very eager to lend for investment property. Yes certain areas are jumping in price, but most are the ones that have been hit the hardest.
Stocks. That leaves stocks. With the market having been at 666 in the SPX back in 2008 and now above 1,800, owning stocks for the last 5 years has been the best investment one could have.
So we should bounce again like we have been doing, climbing that wall of worry. We climbed when the government shut down. We climbed with Syria war looming. We climbed at the start of the year after fund managers dumped their profitable stocks to lock in profits. And we should bounce again. Will it be today, tomorrow or next week?
The problem now is the “wall of worry” is a cold (and perhaps mildly hot) war with Russia.
The chess game continues between Putin and Obama, with the score demonstrably in favor of Putin. Yesterday Russian planes buzzed a US war ship which makes me wonder how it got close enough without the Sea-Whiz taking it out? Was this another blink by Obama? I am not sure of the rules of engagement when a plane buzzes a US warship, but I am under the impression that the US warship has the right to shoot it out of the sky.
My fear is that one day Obama will feel compelled to prove that Putin is not in control like the media and Republican Senators say. McCain recently stated that Obama’s foreign policy was to “speak loudly and carry a small stick”. That has to be embarrassing for any US president as there are valid reasons for the statement- it is not just partisan politics. (HEADLINES BELOW IN THE WTF? AREA).
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
POT people….
Don’t forget that all the positions for POT are in OA, and you can get hold of them (if in POT) at anytime of day or night.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
A lot to talk about in the update that is coming.
HUMPTYDUMMY
QA
Note: Questions we have had regarding the class.
Question:
Can you give me a little insight into the curriculum.
RW Answer
| Married Put | 1-5 | 401K Type Accounts |
| Collar | Wide Condors | Unbalanced 1-5 |
| Risk Reversal | Short Calls | When, Where, Why, How |
| Butterfly | Short Call Spreads | Indexes as a Hedge |
| Which is the Best Hedge | How much to hedge | Individual Names as a Hedge |
| When |
Question:
Will there be information regarding hedging things like 401(k) accounts where someone is unable to purchase anything else but mutual funds? For example, buying X amount of ABC puts in an outside brokerage account will …..
RW
Absolutely….
This is one of the trickier things to get through to people, but as yesterday’s sell off on GOOD NEWS shows, it is important to know.
Question:
Will participants be able to submit questions? If so, will they be able to be submitted after the event or must they be asked during the live event?
RW
If you have a very valid question that would pertain to a lot of the class, send it now! 1/3 of all our material in a new product goes out after the fact as we never know ahead of time what would be the most important thing to you. Through decades of trading and teaching we have a good idea what works, but it would be impossible to know everything people are thinking ahead of time.
If you have questions during the session feel free to submit them in the text box. If at all possible the instructor will attempt to weave an answer into the discussion. If not addressed it is because the instructor feels it would take the conversation off on such a tangent that the class would be lost. IN this case simply submit the question in writing via HUMPTYDUMMY@RandomWalkTrading.com.
Question:
How long is the class. The Website says 3 hours, but from POT I know it is flexible.
RW Answer
Egg-cellent question (keeping with the Humpty Dumpty theme).
The mini-classes we stick with a theme that is designed to be about 3 hours (with a 5 minute break in the middle).
This class has a LOT of information in it. It is probably our most complicated class in terms of the quantity of directions we are taking here. This will make it challenging to get done in 3 hours if no questions come in, everything works perfectly, and I don’t think of anything else to add in the last couple of days.
Be Prepared for up to 4 hours as I think that will be a more realistic time frame. Sometimes what we think is a great explanation turns out to not be. It is then that the instructor will drop the slides and come up with something from a brokerage platform to attack things from a different perspective. That always adds time.
Lastly, depending on market conditions, levels of understanding, etc. the instructor can eat up more time doing things he had not planned.
Question:
I am a new trader barely understanding buying and selling options, and just getting use to verticals. Will I be lost?
RW Answer
No way. Sure, there may be some things that are confusing for a new trader, but most of this relatively easy to understand. Most of it is more along the lines of “Why didn’t I think of that?”
That is not to say you will not be lost on some things, but the session is recorded and you can keep reviewing it to help pull your knowledge up.
Question:
Will this be recorded like other sessions?
Answer
No. Hopefully it is recorded better!! (SMILE) We are getting better all the time as technology improves. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have snags once in a while. It is hard to teach a 50 year old trader technology. Lol. Actually it is recorded and you will also get slides that accompany the session as a study aid.
Attorney Stuff
DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)
Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the DailyPlanet newspaper.
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