Great Morning!
June 30 and July 5th big days in Greece
June 30th is the last day Iran has to make a nuke deal.
BIG WEEKEND NEWS BELOW
Closing Prices From Yesterday
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Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
At first glance it looks like it was a positive day for the markets with the Dow up 56 points. That was ALL Nike moving the Dow higher as the stock was up 4%. Everything else was unchanged to slightly lower.
Bonds sold off again and most likely are headed lower still.
Drachma
Saturday
Greek talks with the IMF heated up and Greece walked out of the talks. With that news lines formed at ATM’s in Greece with machines running out of cash and banks as well.
There is a proposal on the table that can be voted on July 5th, but it is unlikely to mean much as the hardliners in the Greek government are even nuttier than their President and Finance Minister (a.k.a. Jason Statham).
About all the IMF can do to protect the Euro is intervene by selling US dollars on Monday. This means the Euro/USD should go higher (the Euro higher/ USD lower), but we will see if they can stand up to the selling major funds and banks will do against it.
Keep in mind that the Greece needs to pay the IMF 1.5 billion Euro on June 30 that Greece says it can not afford without the bailout (but they don’t want the bailout). I guess Greece is going back to the stupid looking Drachma, a coin even ancient Rome minted in better quality.
In actuality I think one of two things is going on. Either Greece is the best poker player in the world knowing that the IMF has a āfull houseā and they are bluffing with a ā9, 7,5,3 and 2 card, or Tsarias is insane and going to get money from China and Russia ā the usual refuge for insane dictators.
My guess is Sunday will be a āmiracle dayā with this game of chicken. European leaders will probably coward at the thought of 3 days of market declines as a result of this, a Euro at parity with the USD, etc. and give in more to Greece. And at the end of the day that is all Greece wants. They are holding themselves hostage and the IMF feels more pressure than people wanting to go back to the stone age.
KEEP IN MIND:
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we will know more late Sunday.
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We may have some selling in the US markets on Monday because people don’t know the difference between fear and opportunity.
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Money will leave Europe as people fear contagion.
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Money leaving Europe has to go somewhere.
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Since the US dollar is strong, our market is deep with liquidity and our government looks stable, money will flow to the US.
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That money will go into our markets, making this another example of more money flowing into the same number of stocks. It is bullish.
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China is a mess and a bubble. It fell 7% of Friday and people are scared over there. This means what would have gone to China will not go with nearly the same enthusiasm. More for the US.
Sunday
Greece is done. It put a fork in itself. The ATM machines are not working and they shut down the markets for today. They will likely defulat on the 1.5 billion repayment due the IMF on Tuesday. This does NOT mean Greece is leaving the EU, but Tsaprias hinted at it when he said today it was stated that for Greece austerity has been a humanitarian catastrophe. He doesn’t want a deal on Tuesday.
Keep in mind that July 5th the people of Greece can vote to accept the IMF reforms even though Tsaparias walked out of the talks, thus overriding his decisions. So whatever happens today could be reversed by the people if they feel enough pain between now and July 5th.
TODAY
The market is going to open down BIG. The E-minis will be down between 35 and 50 points, which equates to 350-500 Dow points. The Euro is already being smashed and falling over 2 cents. I will keep you posted when it looks like we know what is going to happen.
OPTION TRADERS
Volatility is going to open through the roof. I have been saying for a week volatility is too low for what is about to happen with Greece, one way or the other. I am waiting until we get to a point where the selling is done, and then I am going to sell premium for POT.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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