March 17, 2014
Monday
Good Morning!
I did the morning update, but felt I needed to address things a little more – especially for POT and Condor-Copia people.
POT
I was laying awake thinking. Almost had to get aspirin, but it was more of a brain drizzle than a brain storm. Thinking this whole Russia thing through reminds me of all the stupid political issues from last year.
- We had Syria bring the markets down almost 1,000 points.
Of course that turned out to be NOTHING, so we bounced and ran higher.
- We had the government shutdown that was going to do all but end capitalism (not my words, the words of the politicians). That brought the Dow down 1,000 points and we bounced higher.
NOW we have the Ukraine and we are off 500 points.
I was watching the E-minis move on the open. They were down 3, and then proceeded to fall 7. From thee it bounced back up slowly. At 3am the E-minis are up 3-4 points. BUT…..
The fact that the markets can NOT sell off their typical 1,000 points is telling. This is a somewhat of a big deal. Not yet, but because the US is painted into a corner. Putin is going to keep pushing as there are no repercussions from that – so why not? Obama is looking the fool and getting a LOT of heat from Democratic senators who are up for an election this year. He may be feeling the strain and feel like he has to throw a political Hail Mary.
What are his options?
He has not many. Go military and get into a Vietnam type situation? Very doubtful. Really he can attack Iran or Syria to show he is not a wimp – that is about it. They have been on the radar already. And doing it would signal to Russia that he grew a pair. (sorry for the bluntness).
BUT for NOW it appears nothing is happening today or tomorrow, so the markets will likely have a sigh of relief and bounce even more than they are indicting now. Let’s face it, if this can’t sell off on scary news, then it has to go up when the scary news begins to evaporate.
So I am expecting a large bounce tomorrow – maybe 200+ points to offset the fall of 500. This will be a bumpy ride though as Putin says NO to everything Obama says.
GOOD NEWS is we are short premium and long deltas, not to mention hedged. More after the open.
CONDOR-COPIA
You are getting an update in two parts. The first is written and the second is a video update of the same material that was written. This is being done to assist in any confusion a new order, and possible adjustment may take on people.
This is one of the first video market updates I have done, so attached is a questionnaire with some important questions. Please respond to them if you want your voice heard. And obviously, anyone else reading this who would like to participate in the questionnaire is more than happy to send us an email at:
In the subject line (to help the girls sift through the material) please put “Questionnaire”.
- Does the video update help in understand (beyond the written update)?
- What other topic is important to achieving your goals that we can make into a mini-class to give it its proper attention?
- Do you prefer weekdays (as has been the norm) or weekends (as was the Condor-copia class) to have the sessions?
Lastly, the paper trade order I am looking to do will be adjusted to the second order (as presented in the updates) if the E-minis open >$6 points higher.
Thank you so much.
This could be a fun, fun week! Finally.
