Monday March 10, 2014
RandomWalkTrading.com
1–(855)–RWT-0008
Next Online Class
Condors, Iron Condors, Iron Cockroaches and Unbalanced Condors all included!
Saturday March 15.
Synthetics Class – You should all have your 40 page
write-up by now. Remember, POT people will receive all write ups FREE and bound at the end of the year. Another one coming next month!
Market Concerns
One concern (for me) is how bad Putin has spanked Obama in the public eye. The geopolitical score is Obama 0 – Putin 8. I am concerned that Putin will keep pushing as he sees weakness, or Obama feels like like he has to reverse his public image. Then something unnecessary will happen in Russia, Syria, Iran, etc. This is something I am keeping in the back of my mind as a 20% (my guesstimate) of occurring in the future.
The Dow closed up 30.83 at 16,452.72
The Dow was up to 16,506 before people realized that the Ukraine situation is still evolving, and who wants to go home long over a weekend like this? So the Dow went from near record levels to down on the day, only to bounce 30 points on the close.
AAPL closed down 0.31 at $530.44
The stock has been weak but is having problems selling off much below $530. It has a new iPhone coming out in the summer. It still has a paltry PE ratio. Could it bounce hard from here? I suppose so since no one is expecting it. Besides, why would the company spend $18 billion buying back stock at $500 even?
The VIX closed down 0.10 at 14.11
Down 0.67 at 105.89.
POT people, we got short this bad boy at the right time. Look at the chart of where we got short and where it is a few days later.
Current TLT position:
Perhaps more going on this week?
Congratulations to AK on his purchase of 100 cts of the 107 puts. Now stop gambling!
GLD = closed down 1.08 at 129.09
SLV = closed down 0.58 at $20.08
I don’t think I can help myself from doing a trade in here. Yes I am bullish.
Tesla closed down 6.73 at 246.21
Yesterday
It appeared that nothing was going to stop the Dow from going after its all time high. The market has been leaping over the “wall of worry”, ignoring geopolitical debacles, lousy economic numbers and the evaporation of the middle class (for part time Starbucks jobs instead), just so the unemployment numbers look good.
Then after the first hour or two people realized, “Wait….I am about to buy the Dow above 16,500 again? I am about to buy stock at all time highs in every major index at the same time Russia is sinking a boat to prevent the Ukrainian navy (be it as it may) from leaving port? What am I thinking? Do I want to sweat all weakened in the hope that something doesn’t happen again?” So selling of positions began.
Yet at the end of the day no one panicked, so we bounced – again, as we always do (until we don’t).
Today
We ran up 30 – 40 Dow points on the close. Unless something has changed in the market in that last hour, it is not uncommon for that to come back the next day. In other words, say the market sells off 50 points in the last 15 minutes. All other things being equal it is not uncommon for the market to go back up to test/start at that level again.
Since there are no numbers out today I suspect we will fall 40 points on the open and be a boring day.
POT- You will receive a separate update. Recall that we bought 10 contracts of an SPX put spread when the market was at its highs. Now that the Dow is 100 points lower, or about 12 SPX points lower I can spread it off. Turn it into a free condor $10 wide, etc. Read all about it in your update.
New POT people. Keep in mind that new people are always lost for a while. You are coming to a movie that has been going on for a while, so it will take a few days to catch up to the plot and characters.
Too True To Be Funny
(Never a joke, but always funny)
____ ____ ____
That is the great thing about the Senate. They don’t mind the CIA and NSA spying on Americans, but now that they are being spied on they are pissed. LOL, HE HE, HA HA, ENJOY.
They can spy on me all they want. All they will see is 18 hours a day of typing and conversations with my kids. I gave up farm animals and alcohol years ago. The difference is they usually have something to hide, right Mr. Wiener? They are probably just looking for insider trading tips from Nancy Pelosi.
Attorney Stuff
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