Morning Update: March 07, 2014

Friday March 7, 2014

RandomWalkTrading.com

1–(855)–RWT-0008

Next Online Class

Condors, Iron Condors, Iron Cockroaches and Unbalanced Condors all included!

Saturday March 15.

Holy Cow, that is lone week away

and only a couple of spaces available.

In other words; ENROLL IN A HURRY

SYNTHETICS CLASS: Recall that the write up I was doing was about 20 pages. It has expanded to 30 pages and will be out by the end of the weekend. We will try to start sending them out tomorrow, but the serial numbers take time as they are done in several steps by hand.

Those wanting the recording, write-up, slides, etc can still purchase it by contacting the office. I think it is about $99. It was two days and about 4 hours of recordings and examples. Thank you. 

Current Overall Market Drivers

Economic Numbers

With the exception of the exceptionally manipulated and inaccurate unemployment numbers the economy is showing very little signs of strength. A lot of numbers are missing, but blaming it on the Polar Vortex and weather will get old soon. In addition the economy is showing signs of inflation which is being reflected in rising bond yields and metals.

Stagflation – is an economic condition where the economy is stagnant yet there is still inflationary pressures. Though gas prices have come down, keep in mind that the average price of gas was $2.64 a gallon 5 years ago. A gallon of milk was $2.49 and is now $3.89 a single President ago. An ear of corn was averaging $0.20 and is now $0.40 (100% increase).

Politics

A number of potential candidates can’t wait another 3 years and are already posturing themselves for the next election. Given the popular belief (not necessarily mine or Random Walk’s) that Obama is an inattentive President who still has allowed the perpetrators of the Benghazi attack go and is constantly showing signs of being spanked by Putin, you will see many people getting their feet wet for the Presidential run even before next year’s Senate race. 

As for me….Obama is the President and I want him to succeed as well as Reagan. But I have to admit that I can’t see how that is happening when he does the opposite of Reagan. He is more like Jimmy Carter. Take our hostages – we will not do anything. Take land, we will not do anything. The world is more dangerous – let’s cut the military and spy on Americans. Am I missing something? I do feel let down as I have no hope and only a change for the worse. 

This has NOT hurt the markets yet, but it will eventually. 

Enough said about this. No, I am not too happy about the weakness America is showing around the world. Russia was once dead, and like a Zombie rose again to clobber us politically. Not that I have anything against Russia or Russians, but come on….

This too will eventually backfire on the markets. 

The Dow closed up 61.71 at 16,421.89

The Dow was within 108 points of the all time high before running out of steam again. 

AAPL closed down 1.61 at 530.75

The VIX closed up 0.32 at 14.21 

The TLT closed down 1.06 at 106.56

Smack down day 1

GLD = closed up (again) 1.28 at 130.17

SLV = closed up (again) 0.30 at 20.66

Gold closed slightly above 1,350 today.

Tesla closed up 0.28 at 252.94

POT people …reminder. We are long the TSLA 252.50-257.5 / 265 – 270 call condor as part of a risk reversal turned into a double condor (See Maui ’14 material FINISHING TOUCHES). We sold half contracts of the call condor out for $2 yesterday to take some money off the table. We will close the other half out today. 

Yesterday

Not a lot occurred yesterday. We rested at all time highs balancing the events unfolding in Russia with the economic numbers. Again

Today

Same story. Unless something weird comes out of Russia (because Obama has to regain face or Putin pushes again), or a strange unemployment number we will run to all time highs in the Dow today. I will then get more hedges on in POT (so stay tuned POT heads). 

New POT people. Keep in mind that new people are always lost for a while. You are coming to a movie that has been going on for a while, so it will take a few days to catch up to the plot and characters. 

Too True To Be Funny

(Never a joke, but always funny)

____ ____ ____  

Keep an eye on a revision in 6 months of that last one. 

Attorney Stuff

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Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the DailyPlanet newspaper.

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