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Friday February 14, 2014
Yellen’s Testimony before the Senate has been pushed back to today because of the Polar Vortex, a couple inches of snow, and temperatures a tad cooler than normal.
POT PEOPLE
The Dow closed above 16,000 for the first time in weeks.
The Dow was up 63.65 points to close at 16,027,59
AAPL closed up AGAIN. It settled at $544.43, up $8.51
The VIX closed down 0.16 at 14.14
The TLT was up for the first time in 5 days after a decent bond auction held yesterday.
GLD = up 1.06 at 125.49
SLV = up 0.31 at 19.74
LESSON:
SPOT GOLD closed above 1,300, a key support/resistance level. I recall mentioning that the short interest in GOLD was HUGE, and it was likely going to run higher. This is not clairvoyance on my part. It is simply watching the path of least resistance like we talk about in POT all the time. Too many kids on the bus and it tips over.
The same thing happened when I said the YEN was too weak, trading at 105. There was a risk on trade going where traders were buying the Japanese stocks and selling Yen. When it eventually had to be unwound the Yen fell and the Nikki got smashed. Part of that we saw reverberate through our markets a couple of weeks ago.
TSLA closed was above $200 again, but sellers came in on the close knocking it down to 199.63 (up 4.31).
Yesterday
The markets opened lower on very weak retail sales numbers and initial claims being higher than expected. After the Dow fell 100 points on the open it bounce to gain back all the losses and go up on the day.
In yesterday’s update I mentioned that bad retail sales (because of the Polar Vortex from Hell) and higher initial claims (because of the non-Affordable Health Care Act) were “baked in the cake”. People were expecting this to occur. So when the numbers came out bad and there was no one around to sell, people start to cover their shorts before a loss ensued.
Today
The big number today? MICHIGAN SENTIMENT
In addition, Fed Reserve Chair Yellen speaks in front of the Senate today. Her speech will be the same as on Tuesday verbatim. She held a 6+ hour conference on Tuesday allowing any Congressman to ask her a question. Way more patience than I have for sure.
Markets
We are hovering around 16,000 and will likely face a weaker open. From there? I really don’t have an opinion, but anything above Dow 16,100 today and I will be super bullish. I expect the market to chop out a little time at 16,000 and see if it wants to be a floor or ceiling. The last fall had a bounce out of nowhere and may have lulled some people into a false sense of security.
That is a good thing, for when it does fall again and no one is worried, it will drop like a sack of potatoes (Mr. Gore, there is an “E” at the end when plural).
New POT people. Keep in mind that new people are always lost for a while. You are coming to a movie that has been going on for a while, so it will take a few days to catch up to the plot and characters.
I was going to demonstrate two new trades yesterday, BUT by the time I was ready to get long on the open the market had already moved. I suspect we will pull back on the open and I will try again today.
Remember that next week 20th and 21st will be the POT session during trading hours. From Noon to 1:30 Eastern POT will be held instead of the 19th to watch real-time scalping and legging into synthetic call and put positions.
Attorney Stuff
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