Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Another positive day for the markets as we pushed near Dow 18,000. The Dow got within 21 points of 18,000 before backing off.
TSLA had earnings after the bell. The auto maker, tech company, genius factory sold 33,180 vehicles in the first quarter and expects to complete their 50,000+ goal by the end of the year. This is a surprise to the naysayers who think Elon Musk is some schmuck like the guys at Twitter. The stock was at 227.78 in the after-hours market, which is up 19.43! POT people please make sure to read your section on this update.
Crude oil surged on all the geopolitical activities in the gulf region. Every male in this country learned as a youth that nothing brings out the bullies like appearing unwilling to fight and showing weakness. So now the US has Iran taunting us in Syria. Iran has taken 2 more hostages (total 6), and despite giving them $150 bln we don’t have them back. Russia has deployed air-to-air combat planes in Syria, which is interesting since ISIS doesn’t have planes, but we do. China is still threatening to go to war with the US if we enter their territorial waters, which are not theirs. I suspect the Girl Scouts of America will be the next to flex their muscles, but since they don’t have oil we will not doing anything. Then again, I hear the President does love Thin Mints.
If we can’t have Ronald Reagan back, can we at least have Jimmy Carter? At least Carter tried (and failed) to rescue our hostages in Iran. Can we at least put Dick Cheney in charge of this for a week? Iran needs a whole can of āWhoop Assā opened on them.
TODAY
My Guess For Today: Touch 18,000 and fail.
Explanation: The stock market gets fixated on big numbers and past numbers. For seven (7) months of this year the Dow could not decide which side of 18,000 it wanted to be on. The Nasdaq hung out at 5,000 ā 5,100 and the SPX was at 2,100. We now have the NASDAQ above the range at 5145, and the SPX is above the range at 2110. All that is left is the Dow to hit 18,000.
We tried hard to hit it, but it was just a little too far away. The Dow would have had to be up 171 points to hit 18,000 yesterday, and when nothing is going on it is a tough stretch. BUT….
We are now only 82 points away and have a LOT of economic numbers out. In addition we also have oil stable at the higher end of the range (where it likes to be), bonds a little weak, and TSLA came out with good earnings. AAPL is on a run back towards its old higher, thus adding confidence. The market is looking great to suck us in to a new rally and then pull the carpet from under it BIG TIME.
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TSLA
We might be busy on the open. We illustrated two examples of bullish positions in TSLA near the close, but ones where we didn’t institute a Convoluted Spread. This was my bad as I wanted to open one but was off on the day it reported.
Recall we:
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Bought the 217.5 ā 220 / 237.5- 240 call condor (in two pieces) for a total of $0.70. The stock is looking to open in the sweet spot with only 2.5 days remaining!
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We also bought the December 230 ā 260 call spread ($30 wide) for $5.23. This is looking to open right ATM. This spread should open at over $8.
Below are reprints of the best cartoons I have found.
Too True To Be Funny
Attorney Stuff
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