Random Walk Trading.com
Tuesday
March 24, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
TM
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
A very unimpressive day. I am extremely underwhelmed. We had all the key ingredients for a rally. Oil was not volatile. The Euro was up 1.2 cents. Only one real economic number came out showing no signs of hyper inflation and no signs of impeding doom. Bonds were stable and the earnings calender is very light until next month.
Sitting at all time highs in the strongest bull market in history (running 6 years now) we should have had no problem keeping the modest 60 point gain in the Dow. Yet the last hour of the day saw all the gains +11 more Dow points given back quickly.
TODAY
No idea. We are in Bazzaro World with no trend. The difficult thing about the current market is that the trends last two days, then they reverse. As for what is going to happen today….your guess is as good as mine.
I still think in the near term we are going to keep making new highs in the Nasdaq and SPX. AAPL is going to 140, and the Euro is going to resume its fall again. The only reason for the Euro bounce is that is how currencies work. Every decade or so they go nuts and everyone jumps on the trend. You have big banks and big traders over-exaggerating the moves. The trend is still likely down, but will have short covering squeezes that are rough. We bounced from about 1.04 to 1.09 in a couple days. Get use to them. This is why in POT out FXE trades have been along the lines of getting short and then spreading off and taking profits and repeating a few days later. I almost got short again yesterday, but everyone was eyeing the 1.10 level and I didn’t want to step in front of a possible train.
What is peculiar now is that the equity markets are watching currencies like they did oil a few months ago, but this time they ignore the currencies some days and are following the next. This is what makes the markets hard to predict on a day to day basis right now. Is the market going to ignore or follow the Euro today?
That said, I think yesterday’s sell-off at the end of the day was BS. Baring any movement in the Euro that would prevent a market rally, we should go back to yesterday’s highs. Again, we will see and I am not adamant about it.
I WILL SAY THIS.
I am getting a little concerned about this market running out of steam. We did NOT close on the highs Wednesday after the Fed met. We do not close on the highs any day since then. And when things are going the market’s preferred way we get a late day sell off.
POT PEOPLE
POT people…we may flip real soon. Last year we ran a long delta and was hedged the whole year. To a much lesser extent we have been neutral to slightly long. A few more days of this type of action and I might flip things over where I carry a massive short delta, but am hedged in the event of a run higher.
This week people have asked I do a session on how I blended 3 different trades into one call/put combined butterfly and another low risk bullish position. You got it.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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