Random Walk Trading.com
Monday
March 23, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
TM
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.
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Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Friday was a pleasure from the perspective that things started to make more sense. Certainly it was a painful experience for BEAR (Short market) positions but at least things moved higher when they should have.
OIL was not an issue, and with a move higher in bonds and the Euro a market increase made sense. Think about how crazy determining market direction would be if we once again ran up to the all-time highs and fell on bullish news.
TODAY
I expect the Euro/USD to start falling again as it approaches parity to the USD, but the fall should be more muted and volatile now – much like oil has continued to decline but in a two way move.
The fall of the Euro will eventually be taken as a good thing (just like oil now considered good), but only after people accept a decline in international corporations lower earnings as a result of specific company incompetence in hedging. Other companies will hedge the declining Euro adequately and outperform their sector.
The market will likely be making new highs in the near future with the only head wind being the Euro. Weeks or months down the road the run higher should accelerate as people capitulate to the fact that the only way to make money is being long stocks, and a final move in the bubble accelerates.
When you hear how the exorbitant stock evaluations become justified, we have a couple weeks left before the end, and a major drop occurs. Then Rocco, Robert and I will be laughing our hienies off, and POT people will be busy.
Greece
I do expect a few percent pullback in the equity and index markets IF Greece leaves the Euro, not that it should matter. Greece is playing hardball when it comes to being refinanced, and they are insulting and instigating the main people who sign the check. Right now they are looking tough, but if they screw up Germany might just tell the to get lost and eat their Gyros and new currency. It would be the dumbest thing Greece could ever do. They would end up being a third world country. Professionals are putting the odds of Greece leaving the Euro at 20%.
Personally the 2-3 days of selling that comes with Greece getting kicked out would be worth it. It would be akin to Phillip Morris getting rid one of nonprofitable corporate division. I would love it as any selling that comes with it would be a great put selling opportunity. The Euro would fall for a day or two, and then be a great buying opportunity. It would create the greatest fading opportunity we have seen in along time.
This week people have asked I do a session on how I blended 3 different trades into one call/put combined butterfly and another low risk bullish position. You got it.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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Attorney Stuff
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