Random Walk Trading.com
Wednesday
March 18, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
TM
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.
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Closing Prices From Yesterday
FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCES AT 2:00PM
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
The recent formula for the market going higher is:
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The Euro going higher
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Economic numbers slightly negative so bonds can rally
Yesterday we had just that and the Dow was down almost 200 points before climbing its way back to close down 128 (Dow) and -6.91 SPX.
TODAY
Nervous gyrations until the Fed announcement at 2:00pm.
Remember that the expectation two Friday’s ago was that the Fed was going to start raising rates in June. The unemployment number came out too good, bonds fell, The TLT fell 3 points and the Euro/USD fell $0.02.
Since then we have been getting lukewarm to a little bit poor economic numbers ā the Goldilocks numbers the market likes, which indicates the Fed the Fed may not raise rates until September.
Expected ā Since the overly optimistic unemployment number wreaked havoc on the market with a 330 point drop and a 330 point drop two days later the market has been zigzagging. Traders are expecting for the Fed to take out the word āpatientā from the speech. That is all they are looking at. If things get worse than that…it will not be good.
What is to Happen?
If the Fed does hint at a rate hike in June you will likely see the EUR/USD fall, the bonds fall, and the market go with it.
If the word patient stays it it will perhaps be accompanied by language about the EUR/USD falling and low oil prices. They may even mention yesterday’s crummy construction numbers. This will surprise the market and we could see a big move higher.
Over the last 12 Fed reports the market only moved one time significantly after, and that was recent and to the downside. If I had a gun pointed to my head on this one I would take the bet that a 200 point relief rally to the upside happens.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
A separate update is coming. Stay tuned !
Contract the office at 1- 855 ā RWT ā 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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Attorney Stuff
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