Monday
February 2
2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
17 Days Until Las Vegas “Watch Me Trade and Ask Questions” Seminar
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday / Friday
Happy Ground Hog’s Day! Will the market see its shadow today? It certainly did on Friday. And what a day it was. The market opene up down 177 points. It took a while to climb back out of the hole and be down only 54 points. Then things got ugly again and the market was down150.
Later in the day oil ran up $3.50 for its biggest run higher in months. This helped drag (kicking and screaming) the market back to unchanged (or slightly higher) on the day. But the market felt awful, even during the move up. I sent people in POT an update saying that exact statement, and then the Dow fell 251.90 points.
Turns out there were rumors that ISIS, The Jayvee Team, were taking I rigs in Iraq. That is why oil ran up an the market fell off. It might as well have been the Taliban. No, that could not be since the President said on Friday that the Taliban were essentially well meaning non-terrorists. So it had to be ISIL. One week they are considered Boy Scouts with guns, and the next they have billions of dollars and are taking over oil rigs. Yes, I am positive it has to be them.
ICPT was up almost 18% ! ! ! ! POT people see below.
TODAY
We are at a precarious place in the market. Another $5 points lower in the SPX and this thing is at the end of its road technically. Friday’s fall was a little overdone. We have been seeing an exaggerated move in the last 30 minutes of the day for the last couple of weeks. So all things being equal we should open up $5-$10 SPX points.
SUPER BOWL INDICATOR
Anyone watching the Super Bowl last night had to be on the edges of their seats regardless of which team they were rooting for. But in the end the team that had military run on to the field instead of a giant shitting bird won. And it all came down to a rookie making the last minute big play, yet Brady takes the credit with another MVP.
BUT there is a little known Super Bowl indicator that the media will likely pounce on in 12 hours. Unlike the January effect indicator that is “hit or miss” and has a paltry 70%ish accuracy rate, the Super Bowl indicator is right about 81.25% of the time. That can’t be a coincidence (LOL).
AFL vs NFL
AFL is bearish, while NFL is bullish. The New England Patriots are an AFL team, so we will see a down year, right? I loath anticipating having listening to the arm-chair jocks on CNBC talk about the game for half the day while the market is moving 300 points, and no mention of why. I hate the Monday after the Super Bowl as much as a trip to the dentist – Sorry to our large contingency of dentist students.
It was a LONG class last Wednesday but I covered to large topics.
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The BWB
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and the beginning of a year long journey (but I think we will be lose to done in 6 months) of “the best ay to hedge a vertical spread – winner or loser.
Also, Friday we had history made.
This was the first January I can recall where POT was actually up for the first month of the year. I don’t know anyone who is good at trading January – it is psychotic.
But with ICPT being up $30 on Friday I was all that was needed to turn us into the black. This time last year we were down $15% because of the huge drop we saw of 7% in a week.
A Random Walk First
Recall this was the first time we have ever done a risk reversal that started with the short spread ITM. We had a short put spread an long call spread placed for a $1.80 credit, meaning we only had $3.20 of risk. Friday we took half the trade off for a $3 credit, meaning it was a $4.80 swing. The last 5 is on as it can make another $2k and I am bullish, but not greedy.
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.
Too True To Be Funny
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Wow….Five executions in 5 days. At this rate Texas will get jealous.
Attorney Stuff
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Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
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